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Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral view on wind power stocks; market expectations may be too high

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Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that mainland China's wind speeds in 1 were not strong enough. Longyuan (00916.HK) confirmed similar wind speeds in 2. Some wind power operators seem to lack confidence in achieving their originally planned installed capacity targets for this year. Commissioning schedules have been delayed, raising concerns that wind curtailment rates may rise. Therefore, Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral view on wind power stocks, noting that market expectations may be too high and difficult to meet. The firm also expects total wind power installed capacity this year to range from 20 GW to 116 GW, flat year-on-year.


The bank noted that last year's wind speeds were below the historical average. Average wind power utilization fell by 8.7% year-on-year to 1,893 hours. The curtailment rate dropped from 10.7% in 2013 to 8%. Wind power operators expect wind speeds to recover, but anticipate that curtailment rates will also rise.


More importantly, operators are being required by their parent companies to improve **** rates. Expansion scales may be reduced this year, with less insistence on building more wind farms, which could lead to a decrease in wind power generation.


Morgan Stanley maintains 'Equal-weight' ratings for Longyuan, Huaneng Renewables (00958.HK), Xinte Green Energy (00956.HK), and CGN Meiya (01811.HK). The target prices for these four groups were adjusted as follows: from 8.7 yuan to 8.79 yuan, from 2.84 yuan down to 2.73 yuan, from 2.88 yuan down to 1.76 yuan, and from 2.3 yuan up to 2.34 yuan.